Summary:
Today's XAU/USD pivot points reveal key support/resistance levels and trade setups for gold traders navigating 3 July 2025 volatility.
Pivot points are derived from the previous session's high, low, and close prices and serve as mathematically calculated levels of support and resistance. They help day traders anticipate where price might stall, reverse, or accelerate. If XAU/USD (gold against US dollars) opens above the pivot level, the bias is typically bullish; below it, bearish—providing a structured framework for intraday sentiment.
Gold is highly responsive to macroeconomic influences—like US dollar movements, inflation expectations, and US treasury yields—so pivot points gain additional traction when they align with fundamental triggers. For instance, if gold opens near the pivot amid dovish US labour data, it can signal a clear bias for upward momentum.
We use the Classic (Floor) method—the most prevalent technique valued for its simplicity and utility. The formula:
Using 2 July's XAU/USD data—High: 3.365.75; Low: 3.342.04; Close: 3.350.84—the levels are computed as:
PP = (3.365.75 + 3.342.04 + 3.350.84) ÷ 3 = 3.352.88
R1 = (2 × 3.352.88) – 3.342.04 = 3.363.72
S1 = (2 × 3.352.88) – 3.365.75 = 3.339.99
R2 = 3.352.88 + (3.365.75 − 3.342.04) = 3.376.59
S2 = 3.352.88 − (3.365.75 − 3.342.04) = 3.329.17
R3 = 3.365.75 + 2 × (3.352.88 − 3.342.04) = 3.379.47
S3 = 3.342.04 − 2 × (3.365.75 − 3.352.88) = 3.318.12
The MarketMilk / MyPivots data, showing Classic PP at 3.348.36. likely uses a different data timestamp or rounding—highlighting such minor variations but confirming overall range precision .
Here's how pivot levels compare across four major methods, based on our calculations and external datasets:
| Method | S3 | S2 | S1 | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| Classic | 3,341.81 | 3,343.83 | 3,347.47 | 3,349.49 | 3,353.13 | 3,355.15 | 3,358.79 |
| Fibonacci | 3,343.83 | 3,345.99 | 3,347.33 | 3,349.49 | 3,351.65 | 3,352.99 | 3,355.15 |
| Camarilla | 3,349.55 | 3,350.07 | 3,350.59 | 3,349.49 | 3,351.63 | 3,352.15 | 3,352.67 |
| Woodie's | 3,342.63 | 3,344.24 | 3,348.29 | 3,349.90 | 3,353.95 | 3,355.56 | 3,359.61 |
| DeMark's | n/a | n/a | 3,348.48 | 3,349.99 | 3,354.14 | n/a | n/a |
Range-Bound Trading (S1 ↔ R1):
With price oscillating between S1 (3.339.99) and R1 (3.363.72), establish entries near these edges—buy low at S1 with tight stop-loss just beneath S2. aiming for R1.
Breakout Tactics (Beyond R2/S2):
A push above R2 (3.376.59) can trigger momentum-driven entries; conversely, a drop below S2 (3.329.17) may open a pathway to S3. FXStreet confirms that such moves often accelerate in volatile markets.
Confluence Trading:
Layer pivot levels with 20-, 50-, or 200-period moving averages (MA20 ≈ 3.347.55; MA50 ≈ 3.341.54; MA200 ≈ 3.329.15). For instance, PP ≈ 3.352.88 intersects MA20/50. creating a zone of technical agreement—ideal for breakout or rejection plays.
Momentum Confirmation:
Use RSI (~54.7: neutral), MACD (~2.71: bullish), and Stochastics (~31: slightly oversold) to evaluate breakout validity. Enter long if MACD is rising as price tests R1. or enter short if momentum falters near pivots.
Calculated Position Sizing:
Risk measurement via Average True Range (~6.45) helps set stop-loss levels. For example, enter long near 3.339.99 with stop just under 3.329.17 (S2) and target a risk:reward ratio above 1:2.
Session Overlap / News Event Dynamics:
London–New York overlap and scheduled US announcements (e.g. NFP, ADP) often generate volatility capable of breaching pivot levels. Watch for violations beyond 3.363 or 3.329 during these windows for potential amplifications.
Breakpoint Confirmation:
Only confirm a breakout if price closes beyond R1/R2 or S1/S2 on a 15‑minute or 1‑hour basis—reducing whipsaw risk.
Pre‑Market / London Open (~08:00 GMT):
Price hovers 3.350–3.353 (around PP and MA20). If MACD momentum remains upward, prepare for R1 push.
Look for Buy Entry If:
Price retests near 3.352 with rising volume and RSI moving above 55. Enter long, stop ~3.345 (below MA20/S1), target R1 (3.363) or R2 (3.376).
Alternatively Short Setup:
Should price roll over near R1/PP confluence with RSI divergence or MACD cross lower, consider short with stop above R1 and target S1 (~3.340).
Breakout Confirmation:
A decisive break above 3.376 with volume and momentum supports medium-term bull positioning; failed breakout could revert price to PP.
Today's Classic Pivot Points offer a structured framework for trading XAU/USD:
Neutral range between S1 (~3.340) and R1 (~3.364).
Bullish breakout potential if price breaches R2 (~3.377) with confirmation.
Bearish move if S1 fails and S2 (~3.329) is breached.
Overlaying major moving averages and momentum indicators provides robust confirmation, reducing false signals. Always align risk management to pivot spacing and ATR.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
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