Published on: 2025-05-16 Updated on: 2025-10-10
Oil prices have always been a barometer of global economic health, energy policy, and geopolitical risk. As we look ahead from 2025 to 2030, traders, investors, and businesses are keen to understand where oil prices might be headed and what factors could drive the market in the years to come.
As of October 2025, Brent crude is trading around $65 per barrel, with major forecasters now projecting an average of $68.64 per barrel for the full year 2025 and a sharp decline to approximately $52 per barrel in 2026, according to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) outlook. This represents a significant downward revision from earlier in the year, driven by OPEC+ unwinding production cuts faster than expected and global supply growth outpacing demand. [1]
Looking toward 2030, most analysts expect Brent to stabilise in the $60-$73 range, though forecasts vary widely depending on the pace of energy transition, OPEC+ production discipline, and demand from emerging markets. The bearish case sees prices falling toward $50 if renewable adoption accelerates, while bullish scenarios suggest potential spikes above $100 if geopolitical tensions escalate or climate policies stall.
Here's a comprehensive look at the latest oil price forecasts, the key trends shaping the outlook, and what to watch as the world's energy landscape evolves.
2025: Modest Declines and Ongoing Volatility
Most major institutions forecast Brent crude oil to average between $73 and $83 per barrel in 2025, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading slightly lower. The World Bank projects a decrease from $80 per barrel in 2024 to $73 in 2025, while the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent to average around $74 in 2025.
Some analysts, such as those at Goldman Sachs, see a possible range of $70 to $85 per barrel, depending on how geopolitical uncertainties and supply adjustments play out.
2026–2030: Gradual Recovery, Then Stabilisation
Looking further ahead, most forecasts suggest oil prices will remain relatively stable, with moderate upward or downward movement depending on supply and demand dynamics:
EIA: Expects Brent crude to average $73 per barrel in 2030.
International Energy Agency (IEA): Suggests prices could stabilise between $75 and $80 per barrel by 2030, influenced by new investments in fossil fuels and the ongoing shift to clean energy. [2]
World Bank: Projects Brent at $73 per barrel in 2030, with some scenarios suggesting a possible dip as low as $60 per barrel if global fuel demand falls sharply due to climate policies.
LongForecast: Offers a more bullish scenario, with Brent potentially trading above $100 by 2030, though this is considered less likely by most mainstream analysts.
1. Geopolitical Tensions and OPEC+ Policy
Ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, as well as sanctions on Russian oil, continue to create uncertainty and support higher prices. OPEC+ production cuts remain a major factor, with the group's decisions on output levels likely to influence prices throughout the decade.
2. Supply Growth and US Shale
Global oil production is expected to rise, led by the US, Canada, and Brazil. The EIA forecasts that global supply will outpace demand growth in the coming years, which could put downward pressure on prices-especially if OPEC+ phases out voluntary supply cuts as planned in late 2025. [3]
3. Demand Trends and Energy Transition
While global oil demand is still growing, especially in emerging Asian economies like India, the pace is slowing. The IEA projects that demand in advanced economies will decline this decade, while China's fuel consumption could peak as early as 2025. The rapid adoption of electric vehicles and investments in renewable energy are expected to cap long-term demand growth.
4. Economic Growth and Trade Policy
Global economic growth remains a wildcard. Trade tensions, particularly following the US presidential election and potential tariffs, could dampen demand and weigh on oil prices. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected growth in emerging markets could support higher prices.
5. Technology and Efficiency
Advances in drilling technology, artificial intelligence, and efficiency gains in shale production are expected to lower the marginal cost of oil, potentially keeping a lid on prices even if demand remains robust.
Bullish Scenario: If geopolitical tensions escalate, OPEC+ maintains strict production discipline, or demand surprises to the upside, oil prices could climb above $100 per barrel by 2030.
Bearish Scenario: If global fuel demand drops sharply due to aggressive climate policies or a rapid shift to renewables, prices could fall as low as $60 per barrel.
Base Case: Most analysts expect Brent crude to stabilise in the $70–$80 range by 2030, with moderate volatility driven by supply and demand shocks.
OPEC+ announcements on production targets and output cuts
US shale production and technological advancements
Global economic data and trade policy shifts
Adoption of electric vehicles and clean energy investments
Geopolitical developments in key oil-producing regions
As of October 2025, oil prices have declined more sharply than earlier forecasts predicted. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) now projects Brent crude will average $68.64 per barrel for full-year 2025, with prices falling to around $62/bbl in Q4 2025 and dropping further to approximately $52/bbl in 2026.
WTI crude is expected to trade $4-6 below Brent, averaging in the upper-$50s to low-$60s range through 2025.
These downward revisions reflect OPEC+ unwinding production cuts faster than anticipated (fully by September 2025), robust non-OPEC+ supply growth from the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, and global oil inventories building as production outpaces demand growth of only 1.4 million barrels per day.
Oil prices are experiencing sustained downward pressure due to three primary factors. First, OPEC+ accelerated its decision to unwind 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary supply cuts, with most restrictions ending by September 2025—faster than the market expected.
Second, global supply continues to outpace demand, with U.S. oil production forecast to reach a record 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025, while global consumption growth remains limited to just 1.4 million bpd.
Third, rising global inventories and stock builds of 1.4-2.0 million barrels per day through 2025-2026 are creating oversupply conditions. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and sanctions on Russian oil provide occasional price support, these have not been enough to offset the fundamental supply-demand imbalance that is driving prices lower.
Long-term oil price forecasts for 2030 vary significantly depending on energy transition speed and geopolitical developments. Most mainstream analysts project Brent crude will stabilise in the $60-$73 per barrel range by 2030, with the EIA and World Bank both forecasting around $73/bbl.
However, scenarios diverge widely: bearish forecasts see prices falling toward $40-50/bbl if renewable energy adoption and electric vehicle penetration accelerate faster than expected, while bullish scenarios suggest potential spikes above $100/bbl if climate policies stall, OPEC+ maintains strict production discipline, or geopolitical tensions escalate.
The IEA projects global fossil fuel demand will peak by 2030, creating sustained downward pressure on prices. Key variables include China's oil demand (potentially peaking as early as 2025), the pace of EV adoption globally, technological advances in U.S. shale production, and whether OPEC+ can maintain production discipline as demand growth slows in advanced economies.
The oil market through 2030 is set to be shaped by a complex mix of supply growth, shifting demand, technological change, and geopolitical risk. While most forecasts see prices stabilising in the $70–$80 per barrel range, unexpected shocks or rapid energy transition could push prices much higher or lower.
For traders and investors, staying alert to these evolving trends and regularly reviewing the latest forecasts will be essential for navigating the decade ahead.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
[2] https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf
